The Summer Slowdown That Isn’t
July 1, 2026
July 1, 2026
Summer is officially here, and on the surface, the market looks like it is cooling. But this is not the summer slowdown most people expect. Prices are not softening, and demand has not faded. Instead, something more unusual is happening.
This year's summer slowdown is being driven by one thing: a severe shortage of homes.
The number of homes and condos on the market this week is down 55% compared to the same week last year. Part of that is seasonal. But much of it comes from how fast new listings are disappearing. Homes are being snapped up almost as soon as they hit the market.
This summer slowdown is caused by low inventory, not weak demand.
Active listings are down 55% compared to the same time last year.
Buyers are still active, but there simply are not enough homes.
Single-family home prices have climbed sharply year-over-year.
Fall could bring even more activity as IPOs approach.
Most summer slowdowns follow a familiar pattern. Buyers step back, prices soften, and the market takes a breather. This year is different.
Buyers have not gone anywhere. The market feels quieter only because there are not enough homes to go around. With so little inventory, activity has taken an unofficial pause.
Simply put, the demand is there. The homes are not.
The data paints a clear picture of a competitive market, even during a so-called slowdown.
Single-family homes continue to reach new highs. The median sale price has climbed 22.56% year-over-year to $2,200,000, one of the strongest gains in recent memory. The condo market posted more modest growth, with the median sale price rising 3.17% to $1,332,500.
Competition remains intense. On average, single-family homes are selling for nearly 25% over the original asking price, while condos are selling for nearly 7% over asking. These premiums show just how motivated buyers are to secure a home.
Property Type | Median Sale Price | Year-over-Year Change | Average Over Asking |
|---|---|---|---|
Single-Family Homes | $2,200,000 | +22.56% | ~25% over |
Condos | $1,332,500 | +3.17% | ~7% over |
This is not a market that is losing steam. It is a market waiting for more inventory.
If you have been sitting on the sidelines, this summer slowdown is worth a closer look.
Inventory is low, which means less competition from other sellers.
Buyer demand remains strong and ready.
Well-prepared homes are still drawing strong offers.
For sellers in Marin communities like Sausalito, Tiburon, or San Rafael, listing during a low-inventory stretch may help your home stand out. When fewer homes are available, the ones that do come to market often get more attention.
For buyers who have felt worn down by the pace of the market, this moment may offer a small opening.
A quieter summer can mean less competition on the homes that appear.
More patience and preparation can pay off when the right listing arrives.
Staying pre-approved and ready helps you act quickly when it counts.
This summer slowdown does not mean buying gets easy. But it may mean a bit more breathing room than the spring offered.
There is good reason to think this quiet stretch may not last.
With IPOs on the horizon, more buyers could enter the market in the months ahead. That kind of new activity has the potential to add fuel to demand. This summer may end up being the calm before the storm, with fall looking even busier than the spring we just saw.
We cannot predict exactly how the season will unfold. But the conditions suggest that this pause may be temporary.
This summer slowdown is not the cooling-off period it might appear to be. Demand is still strong, prices are still climbing, and buyers are still eager. The real story is a shortage of homes, not a shortage of interest.
For sellers, this may be a smart time to make a move while competition is light. For buyers, a little patience and preparation could pay off before the market heats up again.
If you are thinking about buying or selling in Marin, let's talk. Reach out for a consultation or a current market update, and plan your next step with confidence before the fall season arrives.
Q: Is this summer slowdown a sign the market is cooling?
A: Not exactly. This slowdown is driven by low inventory, not falling demand. Buyers are still active.
Q: Why is inventory so low right now?
A: Part of it is seasonal, but new listings are also selling very quickly, which keeps available homes scarce.
Q: Is it a good time to sell during the summer slowdown?
A: It can be. With fewer homes on the market, your listing may face less competition and draw strong interest.
Q: Should buyers wait until fall?
A: A quieter summer may offer less competition now. Fall could bring more activity, so being ready early may help.
Q: Are home prices still rising?
A: Yes. Single-family home prices have risen sharply year-over-year, while condos have seen more modest gains.
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Created on 06-30-26
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